In this episode sponsored by Obsidian CIO, host Joe Halpern (Managing Partner and CIO of Obsidian CIO) sits down with Zvi Mowshowitz—writer, investor, AI researcher, and advisor to prediction market platform Polymarket—to explore how prediction markets help forecast uncertain events and improve decision-making.
The discussion examines the economic value of prediction markets, the relationship between AI and forecasting, the role of information aggregation, and why better investing begins with building stronger mental models rather than simply reacting to headlines.
investment-wars-episode-37-prediction-markets-forecasting-ai-and-the-future-of-information.txt
- Discover How Prediction Markets Create Value — Learn why well-designed prediction markets can improve forecasting by aggregating information from thousands of participants and helping businesses, governments, and investors make more informed decisions.
- Understand the Connection Between AI and Forecasting — Explore how artificial intelligence is enhancing prediction accuracy while still benefiting from human judgment, critical thinking, and structured debate.
- Build Better Decision-Making Frameworks — Learn why developing strong world models, understanding causality, and thinking probabilistically can lead to better investment and business decisions.
- Recognize the Importance of Well-Designed Questions — Discover why the quality of a prediction depends not only on the participants but also on asking precise, measurable, and objectively verifiable questions.
- Think Beyond Headlines — Explore how prediction markets encourage investors to focus on probabilities rather than narratives, helping separate signal from noise in rapidly changing environments.
- Develop a Long-Term Perspective — Learn why successful investors balance forecasting with disciplined decision-making, understanding both the value of information and the limits of constantly reacting to short-term events.
Listen to the full Investment Wars podcast on Spotify
IMPORTANT DISCLOSURE: Obsidian CIO LLC sponsors the podcast to further education and critical thinking about the factors that affect markets and investing. The podcast does not provide investment advice. Investment advice is offered only to clients of Obsidian CIO who have entered into an advisory agreement and with whom Obsidian CIO has identified individual objectives, risk tolerance, and other investment needs.
